Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
