Just eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When the England international curled home his second to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have piled up.
According to Opta, in only two games has the team posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
